Labor Day

Sep 4th

September is a usually bearish month in the stock market and the news on the economy isn’t helping turn that around.

First time unemployment claims have remained essentially unchanged for 9 weeks, running at 560,000 plus new claims each week. Actually the current 4 week average is up about 1% from the prior four weeks. The layoff announcements for the month were better than the previous month but on par with the month prior to that. Many companies are still trimming, but are doing so now at levels that don’t require disclosure.

Retail sales are holding their own but then Labor Day was quite late this year.

Sep 8th

Consumer credit numbers came out three times the most conservative estimates and double the prior month, indicating that the consumer is taking the idea of saving to heart. This does not bode well for retail sales numbers and could be in anticipation of Christmas. They may be reducing debt now so they can spend at Christmas or they may be establishing a savings pattern that will mean a bleak Christmas for retailers. It could impact on our Chinese supplier friends as well.

We can blame lots of people for the predicament we are in, there is plenty of blame to go around. But, you ask, what can we do about it? Unfortunately not a lot. We are paying the bill for the excesses of the past decade. Much like the buy now pay later philosophy that got us where we are today, the pay later has arrived. Times will be lean and money a little harder to come by for several years.

On the plus side, we will all be well served to get on a pay/go plan personally. Then we can insist that the government do the same.

Keep watching, times change rapidly.