November 11, 2012

 

The elections are over and regardless of which candidate you favored we all win because the ads have stopped.

 

That said we do have some issues to be concerned about. The deficit for one and the growth in entitlement programs for another.  Sometimes we, the electorate, act like little children. I want, I want, I want. That is all well and good IF we are willing to pay for it. Based on the budget that the Senate has yet to pass, we would be spending more each year than we are getting in tax revenue if we closed down all branches of government except the entitlement programs of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Welfare. It is not the military budget (although we could trim fat there for sure), it is not the other branches of government or even pork barrel spending (although all of those could be cut by eliminating fraud and waste) it is rather a short fall of revenue. We want to pay as little in taxes as possible while getting as much in terms of programs to help our kids, old people, poor and sickly. That simply does not compute.

 

Congress is going to have to “man up” and be the adult here. Of course this is the Congress with an 8% approval rating that we just returned in this election. What were we thinking? Anyway, they are going to have to make tough decision about the future of the entitlement programs and taxes. Raising taxes is tricky with such a weak economy and could tip the economy back into recession (recession is a technical term for shrinking) but feels a lot like this painfully slow growth we have experienced for the last two years. Cutting spending has the same potential. So it is certainly a quandary. It will likely require a multiyear plan beginning in 2013 and lasting through 2018 or 2020 to get the job done. If we deal with the growth in entitlements coming in the future, it allows people to prepare. If we raise taxes slowly by broadening the base (reducing deductions slowly over time) then we can begin to trim the deficits in 2013 and begin to reduce the debt by 2020. If we don’t start now, then the pain will be deeper and more abrupt when we are forced into it. (Check out the street riots in Greece). By then MickeyD’s may have a $5.00 value menu instead of the $1 deals today because the dollar will be so devalued. Don’t think it can happen? How much was gasoline when you started driving? A stamp? A gallon of milk? For me it was 33 cents a gallon for gas, 7 cents for a stamp and milk was 50 cents for a gallon. That was 48 years ago. Look where we are today and think about where we can be by 2060. Oh, and by the way 2060 is only 48 years from now. If you are in your 30’s (or younger) you are likely to be here so it will affect you and very personally at that.

 

I know it is hard to believe but today’s prices were unimaginable 48 years ago. In 2001 oil at $40 a barrel was only becoming a frightening potential. Today we have seen prices well above $100 and today settling about $85. Will it be $160 (gasoline at $7.00) in 2020? Will steak be $25 -$30 per pound? Milk $8 per gallon?  Those are the realities for which we must be prepared.

Hi All,

Well we just past mid-January and the markets have been so quiet people are getting nervous. After all the volatility last year it seems eerie to have stability. Is this the clear sky after the storm or the eye of the hurricane. No one seems sure if we are out of the woods or if there is an ACT 2 to come.

 Most of what I see on the economic side appears to suggest neither good news nor bad. We seem to be adjusting to a new normal.

I listened to a talk given by Woody Hall a PhD Economist from UNC-W today and he confirmed my idea that unemployment isn’t going to get better for several years.

On the political front, the President is building an enormous war chest for his re-election campaign. It is making the conservative talk show hosts uncomfortable.  On one hand it seems ridiculous to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a campaign, even a Presidential one. On the other hand it is truly effective at putting money into the hands of staffers, hotels, restaurants, print shops and a myriad of other businesses around the country. In the meantime the various Republican candidates are busy crisscrossing the country trying to win their primary. Pumping some money into local economies everywhere they go and that spending will leap 100 fold when the eventual nominee hits the trail in earnest.

Who will win is anybody’s guess. Will it matter? Will either candidate, Democrat or Republican lead the country? Will they be a Harry Truman with the idea that the “buck stops here”. Or will they just be more of the same? I heard a local political candidate say “does anyone here think that politicians make too few promises they can’t keep?”  His point is well taken. It doesn’t matter what they promise, we need to elect someone who is more interested in doing the job well than making friends or getting re-elected.

Picking the right candidate is our job-1. We need to “hire” the right person who will lead from the front. Who will take the flack. Who will not waiver once committed to a course of direction.  

In the Great Depression we introduced Social Security and make work programs but we didn’t recover economically until we spooled up the military for WW II. That put everyone to work. We drafted able bodied men to the Army and stay at home mom’s went to the factory to build planes and ships and all the material needed. Everyone had work BUT we also added a lot to the national debt. The cost of resolving the economic crisis of the 1930’s was enormous not only in financial terms but in loss of life. We forget that while the loss of one life is regrettable, we lost more on one day at Normandy that we have lost in Iraq, Afghanistan and any other small actions around the world. We, you and me, have not done without anything during this recession and the two wars. We are building new cars everyday (no cars were made from 1941- 1946). Tires, gasoline and food stuffs were rationed during WW II. Have you had any problem getting what you need?

So far this recession has been, in large part, an inconvenience for most Americans and a real hardship for a relatively few. Now don’t get me wrong, it has been hard for some and we should all do what we can to assist them. At 9% unemployment, about 5 million more people are looking for a job than in 2007, before it all began.

Who is to blame? George Bush? Barrack Obama? Nancy Pelosi?  Harry Reid? Barney Frank? Chris Dodd?  The Bankers?  The heads of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? Probably dealers choice but I don’t really care who is to blame. I care about what we do next to fix it without leaving the bill to the grandkids. We, the people of the United States, elected each of those I named (and their appointees) and WE are responsible. We need to clean it up. We need to fix it.

We need to limit our borrowing, we need to live within our means. We need to move forward as one nation; black, white, yellow, brown and red. We need to assure that Grandma isn’t denied health care and that our grandkids aren’t denied opportunity. It is a tall order but it is our responsibility. We need to make it happen.

That is what Americans have always excelled at. We find a way to make it happen, to achieve the goal and to do it without complaint.  We have one year to send the word that this has gone on too long and that we expect it to be fixed by November 2012. In November we take charge by electing those we believe can and will make a difference. It is up to us; "We, the People".  

Happy New Year folks,

Wow, it is 2012. By some accounts the world as we knew it was supposed to end when the clock stroke midnight December 31/January 1 2000. All the computers were going to stop working. Cars weren’t going to start elevators would stop etc. etc. etc., Well, a dozen years later and were all still here. Sept. 11, 2001 not withstanding, the world didn’t end. We’ve fought to major wars, spent a great deal of money that we borrowed (see below  from Wikipedia).

The last time debt was this high ( as a percentage of GDP) was right after WW II when the government was paying for GI education, hospital care for the wounded and generally trying to get the peacetime economy moving again. Remember that auto factories were shuttered to divert steel and other materials to the war effort. We actually reduced the debt (as a percentage of GDP) during Viet Nam. It wasn’t until the Jimmy Carter presidency that debt began to climb and has continued to climb ever since. Yes, there was a hiatus in the late 1990’s but it was minor and short lived. From 2000 forward (the Bush 43 and Obama 44 years) it has been allowed to climb at ever increasing rates. Both parties were in control during those years so it doesn’t seem to belong to one party or the other. It belongs to the current members of both houses of Congress. Hold them accountable in the next election.

In February of 2011 I wrote in this blog about the coming issues in Europe. They are still unwinding a year later. They will continue to be a drag on our economic recovery for the next year or two.

Despite all the talk about recovery, I’m not seeing it happening anytime soon. For the economy to recover someone has to ship something from someplace. The IXTR (transportation index) is 15% below where it was a year ago, suggesting that there has been no marked pick up in bookings for trucks, planes, trains etc.. Even the Dow Jones US Marine Transportation Index is only up maybe 1% for the year. Not hardly stellar growth.

Housing remains in a funk, with continued high foreclosure rates despite the lowest interest rates in my lifetime, and that is a very long time. In fact the last time Mortgage rates were in the 3% range was in the 1940’s. Homes are selling for a fraction of their cost just three years ago and a fraction of what it would cost to replace them today. This is a huge loss of capital for the American public, all of whom were encouraged to buy homes by the government. Great investment advice don’t you think? We can blame it on the banks but two guys who are to blame are former Senator Dodd of CT and soon to be former Congressman Barney Frank of MA.  Staunch defenders of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae until they went belly up. These two knew or, as they say in legal circles, should have known what was going on. If they didn’t we should charge them with gross negligence and if they did… then they are in the same class as Ken Lay of Enron.

Ask yourself this. Why is it that where you live is still struggling while high end apartment buildings are under construction all over Washington DC and housing prices there didn’t take anywhere near the hit they did in your neighborhood?

So what does 2012 hold? Too soon to tell I suppose, but there is an old stock market saw that says as goes the first 5 trading days of January, so goes the year. This is true more often than not and 2especially in presidential election years, of which this is one. Three trading days in and I see a light. Just don’t know if it is the end of the tunnel or a damn train.

If you love where the country is headed or if you hate it, get out and vote in November. It is the only thing you can do to make yourself heard clearly.

Your one vote can make a difference. Getting your neighbors out on election day can compound that difference. The United States is a Republic not a democracy. We don’t vote on much, we vote for representatives who vote on a lot. If we do a poor job selecting our representatives or if we chose to not participate, then we get the government we deserve.

Politics, Europe and your money

Hi Gang,

It’s the Saturday after Thanksgiving and most of the shopping insanity has happened. Largely the situation is rapidly approaching normal as the pre-Christmas season gets.

Everyone is busy with being busy.

Mostly no one is watching what is going on in the world, but it is getting ugly out there. I can’t believe that no one is paying attention. I am beginning to understand how Hitler began to consolidate power.

Europe is in big trouble. The southern countries are heavily socialist and have been quietly using the strength and productivity of the northern countries to sell debt at favorable rates and with the cover of a strong common currency. This may not stand. Remember, the Euro (currency) has only existed since January 1, 1999, only a dozen years. It was envisioned as a stepping to stone to a United Europe, similar to the USA and USSR. The latter, I remind you collapsed in 1991, only 20 years ago. The Political Union of Europe didn’t come to pass and the financial Union is under severe strain. It, too, may collapse. Why we think our Union will survive without care and attention is beyond me.

Currently we are a leaderless country, not in appearance but in reality. Barrack Obama has failed to lead the country, or more importantly the Congress toward improving the American experience. Most people ask themselves the same question every four years before they vote. “Am I better off now than I was four years ago”? Based on what I hear and see, yes including the ‘Occupy’ movement, I would venture that most people would say NO. Is it President Obama’s fault? Yes… and no. He made some rookie miss-steps. He trusted Nancy Pelosi too much and she was the leader of a part of Congress with an approval rating in the single digits. Really not the place to build upon. She pushed a liberal agenda and forced it through creating a lot of the hate and discontent now evident in Congress.

Since then, and even since the midterm election, she remains, along with Harry Reid, committed to protecting the well-intentioned but poorly written health care program. Rather than to admit that the plan is severely flawed, they have granted waivers to a large number of corporations and special interest groups, including themselves. Really if it’s that good, why is everyone (except Joe lunchbox) trying like crazy to get a waiver? And if it’s so good, why are they getting those sought after waivers?

Occupy should change its chant to throw the bums out. Maybe if we elect an entirely new Congress and Administrative leader in the White House, we get started making some real progress. We need a real pay-go rule. If you want it, you must fund it. No hanky-panky. If it applies to American citizens it must apply to members of Congress exactly the same. Social Security, Medicare, all of it.

Before you declare me ill informed, I know that not everyone is up for election at the same time. But in a four year cycle, we could have the opportunity to make meaningful changes in the makeup of Congress and its sense of mission.

The people I talk to around Washington have a smug, nothing is going to change attitude. They are in control and they will not permit real change. That is the attitude and perhaps they are right.

Military budget cuts may come, but watch where they hit. It won’t be the big military vendor machine. It won’t be the power brokers; it will be cuts that hurt the soldier. Less support for their families, retirement, health care. All the things we, regular Americans, think these people who sacrifice so much for us should get. These are the things that will quietly be taken away. Not one big military supplier will get damaged. Just watch, see if I’m wrong. I hope I am, but I’m betting I’m not.

Oh, and one other consideration, when the soldiers support programs are cut, what happens to the concept of an all-volunteer military? And what happens if the manpower volunteering isn’t sufficient to maintain critical size? Well, I believe we’ll be back to my childhood days of every man (today in the interest of equality perhaps everyone) over age 18 will be eligible for the draft. Forced to serve two to four years. Failure to report punishable by prison... military prison.

Moneywise, if Europe has a major default, and the odds are arguable but substantial, the fallout in the banking system there and here will be as bad, maybe worse, than 2008-2009. Are you ready for that again? It may well be time to be putting money, gold or other valuables away to tide you over. It could crush the housing market if you can believe that. If no lending is available the economic rebound we have seen in car sales and other big ticket items could stop. Unemployment could jump up again. This time well over 10%.

It is said that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Did you learn anything from 2008-2009? Will you be prepared if it happens again? Do you believe the government has any cards left to play if it does?

IF we have to borrow more, will the oil rich Russians, the expanding economy of China and the cash of the Arab world force us into a beggar nation? President Reagan spent a lot of money on Space and expensive weaponry and basically won the Cold War by forcing the USSR into economic disaster trying to keep up. That was in 1988. By 1991 the USSR collapsed. Today the shoe may well be on the other foot. We no longer have a significant space program, the Russians do, as do the Chinese. We are borrowing Trillions of dollars from others to pay our bills. How hard would it be for the Russians and Chinese to bury us making us try to keep up?

Mr. Putin is a smart man. He knows exactly what he is doing. He has control of the political situation in Russia and can lead from power both at home and in the world at large. The Chinese, on the other hand, are about to go through a government in transition and like much of the changes in the Arab world, we have no idea where that will end up.

On that same note, how chaotic was Europe in the 1930's when Adolf Hitler rose to power? What shape was the USA in? Oh, right we were in the Great Depression. Eerily familiar?

We need a leader who will tell the truth, who can lead people, who is willing to be held accountable and who will hold others accountable for results. Unfortunately I don’t see that person on either side of the aisle today. Maybe by the next election cycle someone will rise to the top like cream, but by then it may be too late if the American voter doesn’t get serious and get involved, informed and active.

I won’t bet against the United States but I’m not a lemming either. I am concerned, you should be too.

October 25, 2011

Politics and your money

For years I've been railing about the lack of attention to fixing the housing market as the key foundation block to the economic recovery. Now after TARP, Stimulous, Cash for Clunkers, First time Homebuyers incentives and heaven only knows what other monies have been spent as attachments to this or that bill the administration is trying to address the home owner issues and stabilize home values as a result. A little slow to the party but at least they are beginning to get an understanding of the real problem. Sorry Barney Frank but Fannie and Freddie weren't "doing a great job". The Occupy Wall Street Crowd should be staging sit ins at the offices of Fanny, Freddie and Mr. Frank. They caused the problems. The banks weren't without guilt, but in a free country you play the hand your dealt. They just got dealt a hand that let them win really big. You don't suppose that it was intentional, like dealing off the bottom of the deck or something?

Investors are starting to really split. Some have capitulated and are turning to cash and fixed annuities while others can’t/won’t believe that America is done for and continue to seek the upside that capitalism provides. Which camp are you in?


The facts are:

1. Transportation Indexes are well off their highs a few months ago suggesting that investors don’t see freight bookings growing for trucks, trains, planes and ships. That means they believe the economic activity is flat or maybe even slipping a little. Increased risk of a second dip into recession.
2. Leading economic indicators are trending downward over the past 9 months. Not the type of trend that foretells a recovery.
3. 2011 average capacity utilization is 3% above last year’s average and is above the 2011 average in September. That bodes well for employment.
4. Yet employment remains stubbornly weak. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show 405,000 new claims for unemployment insurance. This would be on trend with the year to date. Same old same old.
5. Consumer Confidence, probably a lagging indicator, has reached a low for the year. This could suggest that we are already in a modest recovery, especially when taken in concert with the slight uptrend in capacity utilization.
6. I’ve been tracking the Philadelphia Fed and the Empire State Index which are both surveys of local business expectations. For the first time since June the two are reporting essentially the same level of expectation. They are positive but scoring only an 8 when 0 is neutral. The last time they matched they predicted a minus 7.7. That is nearly a 100% turn around in three months. The accuracy is anybody’s guess but the trend in intriguing.
7. The employment picture as demonstrated by Monster.com jobs ad activity has been strong and slightly up-trending. This suggests that companies are looking to upgrade and even maybe expand their work force. The persistent unemployment problem points to the systemic problem of the workers available not having the correct skill sets to match the jobs available. That will take years to resolve and won’t be affected by any sort of stimulus other than educational/retraining support.
8. To say that unemployment remains a problem is an understatement. The 2011 average monthly announced corporate layoffs were, to date, 53,000 per month. This is a heck of a lot better than the 116,000 in 2008 or 107,000 in 2009 but it is upsettingly 20.5% higher than 2010. Whether this is due to the chatter we hear about China being more business friendly and the over regulation making it harder to do business here I don’t know. But it seems like businesses may be clearing the decks in the face of “Occupy Wall Street” and “Obama Care” and other regulations that they consider onerous. Since this is a free country, they are free to leave and sell us their products from abroad (open market agreements).

So do I know what is likely to happen? My answer is a resounding NO. Do I know what I hope happens, sure. But like many, I don’t have absolute confidence that my hopes will come true. And like many I’m afraid that the opposite may happen.

I guess I’m playing the odds here. I bet 70% that my hopes will materialize, 30% chance they won’t. I suspect that the economy will continue to struggle until a true leader comes forward and demands that we the people and our elected Congress face up to our responsibility and fix what is broken. I hope Congress can actually do that. We all need for them to do that because continuing on the path we are on now leads us to catastrophe. Without courage and strength we could end up like the United Soviet Socialist Republic, once a world power equal to or at least a close second to the USA in world influence and in military might. It tried to fix Afghanistan too, and failed. Today the USSR no longer exists. No tears in my eyes but could we be next? The European Monetary Union seems to be in dire straights. If it fails, business trade in Europe will take a giant step backward. Banks in the USA could be again in trouble if Europe can’t fix their problems. That will make more problems for us the US taxpayers and cause more negative pressure on our economy. It could be the trigger to a second dip into recession. So are we next to circle the drain? That is the question we must all be asking as the next election cycle approaches. Whatever your leanings, whatever your political bent, exercise your duty to learn about the candidates and vote. Vote as though your life depends upon it. Your way of life really does.

Live , Love and be Happy

September is here!

Hi folks,


Well September is here and the Republican and Democrat Party are going to start in earnest. The Republican Party must choose a standard barer to run against Mr. Obama. Party politics suggests that to beat Mr. Obama they will need a good quality candidate and must get there without giving the competition too much free ammunition in the process. In other words, they must campaign for the nomination based on why they are the best not why the others are flawed. If only they do that it will be so refreshing that the American public of all stripes may find the candidate appealing.

That said, it is unlikely that they will and it is likely that they may shoot themselves in the foot. Unseating an incumbent President is never easy but the tide is running in the right direction right now.

The economy is stalled and may slip back into recession. Never good for the ruling party. Unemployment remains stubbornly above 9%. Never good for the ruling party. Housing and construction still in a major funk. Never good for the ruling party. Lots of other headline news makers not looking so good. Never good for the ruling party. If the Republicans blow this, they may not get a better opportunity in my lifetime.

Expect talk but no real action from either party on taxes. As much as we hate it, we will need to generate more revenues (temporary tax increases across the board) in the short term to help bridge the gap as we continue to trim fat and waste from the bloated budget. Much of the reduction will come in the future, some of the softening of the economic decent is needed in the present tense to keep the economy from regressing into recession. But nothing meaningful is likely to happen until 2013, after the election so expect that the second half of 2011 is likely to be at near zero growth…or worse.

AT&T’s attempt to take over T-mobile was nixed by the FTC. I don’t think that is a done deal just yet but I do think that it was a good sign.

Hewlett-Packard (HP) is abandoning its interest in PC’s much like IBM did a few years ago. They have recognized that PC’s are a commodity like gasoline. The public really doesn’t care whose name is on it. They care about what it can do and price. As a result gross margins have been squeezed to the point that it has become very difficult to justify remaining in that business. HP management saw it and thought about how much more profitable they could be without the PC albatross. Then they took the obvious decision.

2012 may just be more of the same. Europe will either get its act together or fall apart. Either one would create a degree of certainty where none exists. We will continue to be directionless while campaigning for the November 2012 election. Leadership is needed but I fear none will be forth coming. This will add yet another year to the economic malaise that has gripped us since December 1999 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was $11452.86. The Dow closed Friday 9/2/2011 at $11240.26. That is 10 years and 8 months to gain nothing. Glad I wasn’t invested in a DOW tracking fund all these years. Are we in for another extended period of this malaise? Has USA world leadership really begun its decent into the annals of history. As Lincoln said at Gettysburg, “our fathers brought forth, upon this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure.” “It is for us, the living, rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they have, thus far, so nobly carried on. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us - that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion - that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain; that this nation shall have a new birth of freedom; and that this government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

As Mr. Lincoln said, we are still engaged in a civil war, a struggle to define what this country stands for and what it will be in the future. Fortunately, we no longer use guns and waste young lives as the tools of struggle. We use words and laws and regulations to achieve the goals of each side in the struggle (and there are many more than two sides now).

Each time we go to the polls to vote (or fail to), we are engaging in our own battle in this great civil experiment and we are helping to determine whether this nation, so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure.

Remember that no other country has ever come to be as this one has and no other country has achieved the greatness that this one has without the subrogation of others. Rome, Greece, the Ottoman Empire all invaded other countries, enslaved their peoples and pillaged their natural resources for their own betterment. Even our allies the French, British and Spanish along with others of Europe, conquered and pillaged foreign lands creating empires. The results are seen close by in Haiti where the French raped the country of its natural resources and then gave them their “freedom” to avoid cleaning up the social mess they created. The citizens of Haiti are still struggling in poverty.

We are unique and we need to understand that our survival is not a given. We must regain our world leadership position by leading the world economy out of this recession. We can do it but all parties must use sound business judgment and work together without letting rigid ideology stop the progress. On the other hand, the stupidity of the past pushing costs off onto future generations has to stop. We must live within our means as a country just as we must as citizens. Debt is fine when it is used to support growth and gets paid back some day…soon. Part of each dollar of surplus (and we have had them as recently as the 1990’s) should be used to assure future growth just as businesses do. Part should be used to pay down old debt and part saved. When that policy is followed, we have sustainable growth that provides the dollars needed to provide for increased services. We can then pay for the health care we want all citizens to have. We can then pay for a strong national defense. But until then, we must get the spending down to the level that income supports and the income up to where spending needs to be to fulfill our societies requirements.

Politics and Your Money: 8/26/2011

Politics and Your Money: 8/26/2011